Scenario Planning & Delphi Research – Scenario Plans (& Delphi Research)

USA Population vs Personal Consumption Expenditures

USA: An Overconsumer

On August 29, 2024

In RegenerativeAI, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research, Strategic Planning

Despite comprising just 4.3% of the global population, the U.S. accounts for a staggering 32% of worldwide personal consumption. This statistic highlights the significant economic weight of American consumers, who drive demand both at home and abroad. However, it also underscores a profound social responsibility: as a dominant force in global consumption, U.S. consumers have the power to influence market trends, sustainability practices, and social equity. The choices made by American shoppers not only shape the economy but also have far-reaching implications for the planet and future generations.

Source: International Monetary Fund; United Nations as of December 2023.

Assistance of ChatGPT and Gemini (2024, Aug) with prompts by E. Hall.

New Workbooks: Unleash the Power of Rapid Strategic Planning

By DelphiMan

On August 5, 2024

In Generative AI, Nonprofits, RefractiveThinker, RegenerativeAI, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research, Strategic Planning

Are you ready to revolutionize your strategic planning approach? We’re thrilled to announce the release of two groundbreaking workbooks: “Perpetual Innovation™: Rapid Strategic Planning and Regenerative AI” and “Perpetual Innovation™: Workshop-Workbook for Rapid Strategic Planning and Regenerative AI”. For a limited time, you can get the Kindle versions of both workbooks for just $2.99 each and $8 off printed editions.

Why These Workbooks Are Game-Changers:

These are the prompts used to gather information about homelessness and to develop a Delphi Method study to research causes and possible interventions (locally). This is part of our Regenerative AI project; recreate as needed, when needed, with the GenAI engines available to you at that time. (Reprinted with permission from authors at NonprofitPlan.org and some adaptation here.)

Select GenAI results as of April 2024 of Delphi Research on Homelessness (from ChatGPT 4.0, Gemini, Claude, and Copilot) are available in this pdf document.

By DelphiMan

On May 5, 2024

In Generative AI, Nonprofits, RefractiveThinker, RegenerativeAI, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research, Strategic Planning

Earth Day, Drawdown, and GenAI

By DelphiMan

On April 23, 2024

In CCS, Climate Change, Generative AI, RefractiveThinker, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research

Graphic of Categories to Help Reduce Human Impact on Planet. (ChatGPT 4.0 (DALL-E). Prompt by E Hall, 2024, April 22)

What does GenAI have to say about the scientific-based solutions promoted by Project Drawdown? ProjectDrawdown.org

<This Article is modified and reproduced from SustainZine.com, with permission. The discussion related to scenario planning is added here.>

Disruptive Innovation: AI Will Spark Exponential Economic Growth

By DelphiMan

On April 18, 2024

In Generative AI, H+AI, RefractiveThinker, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research, Strategic Planning

(First published on IntellZine on April 4, 2024, https://www.intellzine.com/2024/04/disruptive-innovation-why-ai-will-spark.html … Repeat here with permission.)

The innovation and investment guru Cathy Wood gave a TED talk in December 2023 about 5 pivotal innovation platforms that will (continue) to change the world as we know it. Her group expects to see exponential sustained growth that is fueled by the productivity gains in these areas, especially where they converge. The 5 platforms (AI, Robotics, Energy Storage, DNA sequencing, and blockchain) are described below, with AI in the center. One example she uses is the rapid move to self-driving taxis. TED talk with Cathy Wood, Why AI Will Spark Exponential Economic Growth. (2023, Dec. 18).

H+AI: The Genius of Crowds and AI

By DelphiMan

On March 26, 2024

In Delphi Method, Generative AI, H+AI, RefractiveThinker, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research

This site has now taken a dive into AI, Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) in this case. AI Assistants are everywhere now, and proliferating. In search(ish) there is Google’s Gemini (formerly Bard); in Microsoft there’s Copilot which utilizes OpenAI’s technology. And, of course there OpenAI’s ChatGPT itself, with the open source version available to anyone who has the time and money to obtain data, pre-train, and implement their own GAI system — typically for a more specific application like internal customer service.

There is a new heading on DelphiPlan.com (ScenarioPlan.com) that addresses Delphi + AI, or Scenario + AI… https://delphiplan.com/delphi-ai-primer/

The EV Hurricane Disaster: a 1-sided scenario, Part 1

By DelphiMan

On December 29, 2021

In Scenario Planning & Delphi Research

An unsigned, undated, email came circulating the web presenting a horror story about EVs: Everyone has electric cars, and they are all trying to flee the peninsula (let’s say South Florida) as a hurricane approaches. Cars are stuck in traffic with no place to go, and no place the recharge. Can’t run radios and air conditioning because that uses precious batteries. Kids and elderly suffering in sweltering heat.

The obvious conclusion: we all need to stick with huge gas-guzzling SUVs and avoid moving into the future.

WEF Global Risks Report for Scenario Plans

By DelphiMan

On January 30, 2021

In Contingency Plan, Horrizon Planning, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research, Strategic Planning

The Global Risks Report 2021, 16th Ed., Insight Report, was just released by the World Economic Forum (WEF). This is one of the best places in the world to gather ideas for scenario planning, especially Chapter 1 on Fractured Futures. Essentially, this report is scenario planning, but for the whole of the world, and then on a region-by-region basis. So, a government, a business, or a non-profit organization can simply review these risks, adapt the concepts to your locale and situation, and wa-la, you have scenarios to plug into your scenario planning workshop. Of course, multiple risks might have similar results for your organization; for example, disaster recovery planning might be similar for man-made disasters as well as natural disasters.

Beyond Moore’s law, Beyond Silicone Chips

By DrJ

On May 1, 2020

In Delphi Method, Horrizon Planning, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research

Beyond Moore’s law (by Dr Ed Jordan)

After almost 60 years, Moore’s law, related to the doubling of computing power every year-and-a-half-ish, still holds. At the current exponential speed, there is a brick wall looming in the foreground: the physical limitations of silicon chips. The most straightforward example of how that might impact a company is to look at Intel Corp. But first more on Moore’s law and the more general idea of learning curves.

PREDICT a Pandemic: First Kill those Pesty Scientists

By DelphiMan

On April 6, 2020

In Horrizon Planning, Military/DoD Planning, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research, Strategic Planning

Oh My God!

Trumps administration completely stopped the PREDICT program that did USAID training and response world-wide for pandemics. Since the Bird Flu of 2005 (H5N1), the US presidents (Bush II and Obama) have moved toward building a program to identify potential pandemics and to help countries (including the USA) deal with such an eventuality. Of course, the PREDICT program got to deal with several pandemic-type events including SARS, MERS, Ebola and even Zika (mosquito). The idea, which apparently worked very well, is to fight a pandemic where it originates in other countries, so that you don’t have to fight it here in the USA. Of course, the train-the-trainer program would be developed and applied here in the USA.

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