Scenario Plans (& Delphi Research)

I looked into the future, and the time to act is now.

Tag: signposts

PREDICT a Pandemic: First Kill those Pesty Scientists

Rough Road Ahead

Oh My God!

Trumps administration completely stopped the PREDICT program that did USAID training and response world-wide for pandemics.  Since the Bird Flu of 2005 (H5N1), the US presidents (Bush II and Obama) have moved toward building a program to identify potential pandemics and to help countries (including the USA) deal with such an eventuality. Of course, the PREDICT program got to deal with several pandemic-type events including SARS, MERS, Ebola and even Zika (mosquito). The idea, which apparently worked very well, is to fight a pandemic where it originates in other countries, so that you don’t have to fight it here in the USA. Of course, the train-the-trainer program would be developed and applied here in the USA.

Foreign aid through the US Agency of International Development (USAID) was frozen by the first few days of August 2019 (Trump administration freezes foreign aid funds pending review). The money of $2B to $4B that was unspent was to be frozen. An obvious indication that the aid programs and the employees associated with them were moving to temporary status. The end of PREDICT was predicted.

Donald McNeil discusses the closure of the PREDICT program in October 25, 2019:

“The program, known as Predict and run by the United States Agency for International Development, was inspired by the 2005 H5N1 bird flu scare. Launched 10 years ago, the project has cost about $207 million.

The initiative has collected over 140,000 biological samples from animals and found over 1,000 new viruses, including a new strain of Ebola. Predict also trained about 5,000 people in 30 African and Asian countries, and has built or strengthened 60 medical research laboratories, mostly in poor countries.”

McNeil, October 25, 2019

A letter to the USDA Administrator Mark Andrew Green summarizes, with footnotes, the phantom shutdown of the PREDICT program in 2019, with the promise of “something” to replace it going out for bid. The letter of Jan 30, 2020 by Senators Warren and King documents and articulates the key questions that arise for killing off this program to deal with pandemics. The senators’ full letter can be read HERE. [Yes, I know, they are mouthy Democrats, but check their footnotes. Footnotes in a letter!?]

In a prior ScenarioPlans blog post, the question was posed: How is it possible that we in the USofA did not have early warning signposts about the COVID-19 back in November or December of 2019?  Pandemic Scenario in Trump Transition Team, Days before Office. A practice drill on a hypothetical pandemic scenario was apparently wasted on the incoming Trump transition team.

The Real Donald Trump admiration in action has systematically pared back government organizations and killed off the scientists. Here’s what two past scientist, former undersecretaries of research, education and economics, say about Trumps war on science and scientist. When Trump simply cut the budgets for departments, the budget was restored by congress. So, apparently, new approaches were needed. Within the USDA, he relocated DC scientists and researchers to Kansas City, with a couple weeks’ notice. (Read about Mulvaney’s praise of the effective firing of half of the DC staff by USDA’s head Sonny Purdue.) Now he apparently shut down an entire global pandemic department, while also closing down the Pandemic Reponse team in the White House. What could go wrong?

If you were a bet’n man, and we know that Trump-the-Casino-Man is, you would expect to get 2 to 5 years before some pandemic swipes through the world. Even then, what’s the chance of it being a really, really bad pandemic?

The thing with scenario planning, is that you build detection mechanism (signals and signposts) so you identify potential changes in the future. Then as part of the scenario planning process (every couple years typically), you develop contingency plans including modifications to disaster recovery plans (DRPs).

Or, you simply kill off (fire) the voices of science and fact.

Pandemic Scenario in Trump Transition Team, Days before Office

Okay!. So the Obama administration left the incoming Trump administration several scenarios for them to think about. No evidence as to what happened to the final report. But apparently, it showed everything that we have seen since November in China, and the first outbreaks outside of China. The result was a world-wide pandemic. Overwhelming the US with supply shortages and patent overflows. What happened to the final report? The early warning signposts? The disaster (recovery) plans?

We did a blog post about the military planning scenarios that would have realized a pandemic as an act of war… Or, even if it wasn’t caused by an act of war, the resulting story line would be similar. And, of course, if the pandemic started elsewhere, there would signals and signposts, in the jargon of Shell related to early warning signs in scenario planning.

A major country should be doing military scenario planning for several topics. None is quite as huge and integrated as climate change. Look at this report produced by The National Security, Military, And Intelligence Panel on Climate Change (NSMIP, February 2020), A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change: How Likely Warming Scenarios Indicate a Catastrophic Security Future. It doesn’t seem possible that the US would not have a plan like this for a pandemic? It also doesn’t seem possible that the US would not have multiple plans for economic recession, no matter the cause. Since we missed the boat on the pandemic, hopefully we didn’t miss planning for a recession… However, this recession is like none we have ever had before. Kind of like turning the switch off on most of the economy for a while. (How long is a “while” is a $4T question?)

Kiaser Health News did a composite of highlights from several articles about the Trump transition team and how badly they apparently failed in the Pandemic exercise: How A Crisis Simulation Run Before Trump’s Inauguration By Obama’s Team Eerily Mirrors Current Outbreak!

November in China. By December, the military and health official had to know that expansion into a global pandemic was was not only possible, but likely. In Florida, when we see a Hurricane coming, we dust off all of our contingency plans for the businesses and start buying toilet paper and canned goods. We make sure that we have lots of jugs to fill with water if needed (no need to buy water, by the way).

Did the military and health officials simply forget to mention these things up the chain of command, or — apparently more likely — did the higher-up-the-chain-of-command not listen? What the hell happened to the results of the simulation? Did it take the path of anything and everything that Obama did/mentioned/signed/said, flushed down the toilet?

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